https://calculating.ca/calculators/finance-money/retirement-sequence-of-returns-calculator/
Finance & Money / THE MITEY TOOLKIT
Retirement Sequence Stress Test
Use the same annual returns in opposite orders to see how withdrawals change the result.
Reversed path minus entered path · ending balance
$219,341.03
From your inputs. Explore the breakdown below.
- Entered path ending balance
- $403,085.29
- Reversed path ending balance
- $622,426.32
- Same compounded annual return · before withdrawals
- 3.28%
- Years modeled
- 10
- Unfunded withdrawals · entered path
- $0.00
- Unfunded withdrawals · reversed path
- $0.00
- This is a deterministic stress comparison, not a probability of success or a historical backtest.
- Returns apply first; available funds are withdrawn at year end. Any unfunded spending remains visible as shortfall.
Same returns. Different order.
| Year | Entered return | Reversed return | Entered balance | Reversed balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -20.00% | 11.00% | $560,000.00 | $792,500.00 |
| 2 | -10.00% | 9.00% | $463,200.00 | $823,025.00 |
| 3 | 5.00% | 7.00% | $444,744.00 | $839,020.75 |
| 4 | 10.00% | 6.00% | $446,770.08 | $846,913.68 |
| 5 | 12.00% | 8.00% | $457,085.20 | $871,369.48 |
| 6 | 8.00% | 12.00% | $449,488.79 | $931,770.59 |
| 7 | 6.00% | 10.00% | $431,411.62 | $979,901.15 |
| 8 | 7.00% | 5.00% | $415,663.00 | $982,948.78 |
| 9 | 9.00% | -10.00% | $406,206.30 | $837,787.53 |
| 10 | 11.00% | -20.00% | $403,085.29 | $622,426.32 |
FOLLOW THE CASH FLOW
Annual cash-flow totals
Balance is the period-end value; growth and payments are totals for that year or final partial year. Download the ledger for every modeled period. Figures in CAD.
| Year | Closing balance | Annual growth / loss | Annual withdrawal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now | $750,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 1 | $560,000.00 | -$150,000.00 | $40,000.00 |
| 2 | $463,200.00 | -$56,000.00 | $40,800.00 |
| 3 | $444,744.00 | $23,160.00 | $41,616.00 |
| 4 | $446,770.08 | $44,474.40 | $42,448.32 |
| 5 | $457,085.20 | $53,612.41 | $43,297.29 |
| 6 | $449,488.79 | $36,566.82 | $44,163.23 |
| 7 | $431,411.62 | $26,969.33 | $45,046.50 |
| 8 | $415,663.00 | $30,198.81 | $45,947.43 |
| 9 | $406,206.30 | $37,409.67 | $46,866.38 |
| 10 | $403,085.29 | $44,682.69 | $47,803.70 |
CHANGE ONE VARIABLEWhat moves your answer?
Compare five values while keeping every other input the same. These are scenarios, not likelihoods or forecasts.
| Input value | Primary result | Use scenario |
|---|
BEHIND THE ANSWER
Formula and method
Annual closing balance = max(0, opening balance × (1 + entered return) − requested year-end withdrawal). The comparison reverses the exact same return list.
Scenario A follows the entered annual returns; scenario B uses the same values in reverse order. Requested withdrawals rise annually by the entered increase. Each withdrawal is capped at available funds and unmet amounts accumulate separately. The compounded return shown is the geometric annual return of the list before withdrawals; it is identical in both orders. With no contributions or withdrawals, the final values should agree apart from floating-point rounding.
Context sources checked October 25, 2026
These sources explain the subject. The model follows the formula and assumptions shown here; a source link does not imply endorsement.
Worked examples
Same return set, different withdrawal outcome
- Starting portfolio:
- 100000
- First annual withdrawal:
- 10000
- Annual withdrawal increase:
- 0
- Annual return path · percentages, comma-separated:
- -20,25
Reversed path minus entered path · ending balance: $4,500.00
Without withdrawals, order does not change the ending balance
- Starting portfolio:
- 100000
- First annual withdrawal:
- 0
- Annual withdrawal increase:
- 0
- Annual return path · percentages, comma-separated:
- -20,25
Reversed path minus entered path · ending balance: $0.00
Assumptions and limits
- Annual end-period cash flows; no tax, fees, pension income, asset allocation or market simulation.
- Entered returns are illustrative assumptions and not an actual index history or forecast.
- A path can run out of money; a positive balance does not establish retirement adequacy.
This tool provides an educational estimate. Rules, rates and personal circumstances can change the answer. Review the assumptions before relying on a result. Report a correction.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Treating entered return, vacancy or rate assumptions as forecasts.
- Comparing only the headline amount without checking timing, cash costs and model limits.
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