Finance & Money
FIRE Number
Calculate the portfolio size needed for financial independence.
The FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) movement is built on one number: the amount of invested assets that, at a 4% annual withdrawal rate, covers your annual expenses indefinitely. This calculator finds that target for your lifestyle.
FIRE Number
$1,200,000
- annual Withdrawal
- $48000
- monthly Budget
- $4000
- safe Withdrawal Rate
- 4%
Formula and method
FIRE Number = (Annual Expenses - CPP/OAS) / Safe Withdrawal Rate
Based on the Trinity Study. The 4% rule assumes a 30-year retirement horizon with a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds. For retirements longer than 30 years (early retirees), a 3-3.5% rate is often recommended.
Worked examples
Frugal FIRE at $40K/year
- Annual Expenses ($):
- 40000
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (%):
- 4
- Expected CPP/OAS Income ($/yr):
- 0
FIRE Number: $1,000,000
Comfortable retirement at $80K/year
- Annual Expenses ($):
- 80000
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (%):
- 3.5
- Expected CPP/OAS Income ($/yr):
- 15000
FIRE Number: $1,857,143
Assumptions and limits
- Constant real returns
- Expenses stay flat in real terms
- Standard Trinity Study parameters
This tool provides an educational estimate. Rules, rates and personal circumstances can change the answer. Review the assumptions before relying on a result. Report a correction.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Using current expenses without accounting for lifestyle inflation after retiring.
- Forgetting to subtract guaranteed income sources like CPP, OAS, or pension.
- Using 4% for a 40+ year retirement — lower withdrawal rates (3-3.5%) are safer for long horizons.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Trinity Study?
A 1998 study by three Trinity University professors that analyzed historical portfolio survival rates at various withdrawal rates. It found that a 4% withdrawal from a 50/50 stock-bond portfolio survived 95%+ of 30-year periods.
Is 4% still valid?
With current low bond yields, some researchers recommend 3.3-3.5% for new retirees. For a 30-40+ year horizon, many FIRE practitioners use 3.5% to add a safety margin.
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